{"id":8934,"date":"2026-07-28T14:58:28","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T11:58:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/31-preview.freshtone.ru\/sell-eurusd-on-fed-tightening-expectations\/"},"modified":"2026-07-28T14:58:28","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T11:58:28","slug":"sell-eurusd-on-fed-tightening-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/31-preview.freshtone.ru\/en\/sell-eurusd-on-fed-tightening-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"Sell EURUSD on Fed tightening expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In the coming days, the fundamental outlook for <a href=\"https:\/\/marketcheese.com\/symbol\/eurusd\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">EURUSD<\/a> hinges on three key factors: the Federal Reserve&#8217;s (Fed) monetary decision, the latest twists in the oil market, as well as critical US GDP and inflation data. For now, the pair is hovering near 1.1400, enjoying a temporary respite from the partial thaw in Middle East tensions. But this calm may not last long.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Here&#8217;s what&#8217;s moving the needle this week:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>FOMC meeting &amp; tone.<\/strong> Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the real fireworks will come from the statement and Kevin Warsh&#8217;s press conference. Investors are bracing for a hawkish hold\u2014a tone that leaves the door wide open for an interest rate hike in the fall if inflation refuses to play ball. In other words, it&#8217;s not the decision itself that matters\u2014it&#8217;s the message.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>US GDP &amp; PCE (a reality check on July 30). <\/strong>This Thursday&#8217;s doubleheader\u2014Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter (Q2) and core Personal Consumption Expenditures data\u2014could either reinforce the regulator&#8217;s cautious stance or throw a wrench in the works. Soft growth and cooling inflation would be a one-two punch against the dollar.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Oil &amp; geopolitics. <\/strong>Brent crude sliding below $93 amid signs of de-escalation in Iran has taken the edge off price pressure fears on both sides of the Atlantic. This has given the euro a bit of breathing room.<\/p>\n<p><strong>ECB &amp; its steady hand. <\/strong>The European Central Bank is sitting tight at 2.25%, though officials have been quick to remind markets that a September tightening is still on the table. Their speeches have kept the euro from a freefall. Even without adjusting borrowing costs, the regulator is doing its part to stabilize the single currency.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>What to expect next? Today, EURUSD is likely to stay stuck in a narrow range as traders hold their breath ahead of the Fed meeting. Wednesday, however, could be a different story\u2014volatility is set to spike with the rate decision. If the American central bank refrains from dovish language, the dollar could catch a bid. Thursday&#8217;s data will then either amplify or soften the blow.<\/p>\n<p>Technically, the damage is already done. The pair has formed a bearish pattern that points to a potential breakdown below current levels, with 1.1000 looking like the next major stop.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><strong>The ultimate recommendation<\/strong> is to sell EURUSD. Lock in profits at 1.1000. Place Stop Loss at 1.1780.<\/p>\n<p>Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow you to enter a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market analysis by financial analysts and experienced traders. Forecast for EURUSD.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8935,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-forecasts"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"2.12.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["ru","en"],"languages":{"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Sell EURUSD on Fed tightening expectations - Ciraxes<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sell EURUSD on Fed tightening expectations - 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