The futures curve for June-August 2026 is firmly in backwardation, a sign that supply is tightening here and now. Essentially, buyers are willing to pay a premium for prompt delivery.<\/p>\n
As the US-Iran conflict heats up, trading volumes have exploded. A decisive break above the $98.80 resistance would act as a launchpad for oil, potentially catapulting prices toward the $110\u2013$120 zone.<\/p>\n
Option market data reveals a clear tilt toward defensive positioning\u2014mixed with bold bets on a violent upward spike. Here’s how this tension breaks down across calls, puts, and volatility:\u00a0<\/p>\n
Call options.<\/strong> A massive cluster of open interest looms at the $100 and $105 strikes. Investors are racing to shield themselves from the nightmare of a deeper or longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n Put options. <\/strong>A solid floor has formed at $90. Falling below this level seems far-fetched as long as the threat of supply disruptions remains alive and well.<\/p>\n Implied volatility (IV). <\/strong>A thick fog of uncertainty hangs over the market, keeping IV stubbornly elevated and call options painfully expensive\u2014proof that it trembles at the prospect of a price shock. <\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n This fear doesn’t stay locked in options\u2014it seeps into the broader trading mood. Investor sentiment leans moderately bullish, yet tinged with undercurrents of panic. But what’s really driving such a tilt?\u00a0<\/p>\n Geopolitics. <\/strong>The actual shutdown\u2014or even the credible threat of one\u2014of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes, completely overshadows any fundamental surplus arguments. Earlier forecasts from JPMorgan ($60) and the Energy Information Administration ($79) have been swept off the table.<\/p>\n Inventories.<\/strong> Global commercial stocks continue their downward march, leaving prices razor-sensitive to even a hint of tanker delays.<\/p>\n Fund actions. <\/strong>Quantitative hedge funds (CTAs) are staying long and strong, providing a sturdy tailwind for the uptrend.\u00a0<\/p>\n All in all, the most likely scenario sees prices stubbornly holding above $93. If de-escalation fails, the market will challenge the psychological $100 barrier. In case the conflict drags on, expect quotes to reach $130 by midsummer.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The ultimate recommendation<\/strong> is to buy Brent crude. Place Take Profit at $107. Set Stop Loss at $92.<\/p>\n Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow you to enter a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Market analysis by financial analysts and experienced traders. Forecast for Brent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8232,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-forecasts"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"2.12.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["ru","en"],"languages":{"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"yoast_head":"\r\n