{"id":5311,"date":"2025-07-02T09:46:43","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T06:46:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/31-preview.freshtone.ru\/eurusd-rally-faces-potential-correction-toward-1-165\/"},"modified":"2025-07-02T09:46:43","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T06:46:43","slug":"eurusd-rally-faces-potential-correction-toward-1-165","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/31-preview.freshtone.ru\/en\/eurusd-rally-faces-potential-correction-toward-1-165\/","title":{"rendered":"EURUSD rally faces potential correction toward 1.165"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/marketcheese.com\/symbol\/eurusd\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">The EURUSD pair<\/a> continues its medium-term uptrend but may be due for a corrective pullback. After surpassing <strong>1.18<\/strong> yesterday, its highest level since late 2021, the rally shows signs of exhaustion. The pair has not seen even a minor downward retracement in two weeks, with the last significant correction occurring in mid-May. Both technical indicators and a shifting fundamental backdrop now suggest increased downside risks for the euro.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/marketcheese.com\/news\/post\/TXpBM05UWQ-euros-rise-above-12-may-trigger-another-key-rate-cut-ecb-officials\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Luis de Guindos, Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB), warned that a sustained rise EURUSD above 1.2<\/a> could force the bank to downgrade its GDP and inflation forecasts. An overly strong euro would hurt the competitiveness of European exporters and suppress inflation via cheaper imports.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>To curb further appreciation, the ECB may extend its rate-cutting cycle. While a pause is likely in July, the <a href=\"https:\/\/marketcheese.com\/news\/post\/TXpBM016TQ-ecb-s-simkus-expects-reduction-in-interest-rates-by-regulator-towards-year-end\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">odds of additional easing this autumn have risen sharply<\/a>. The EURUSD long-term average since 1999 stands at <strong>1.183<\/strong>, a level whose breach would likely raise concerns among policymakers. With the EU economy just emerging from two years of stagnation, such euro strength could undermine the recovery.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Bloomberg analysts are paying close attention to the state of Germany&#8217;s economy. Its main growth driver remains manufacturing export, with the current account surplus reaching a record 250 billion euros ($290 billion) last year. A stronger euro would adversely impact foreign trade in Germany and other EU nations, while domestic consumption growth would be insufficient to fully offset export losses.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>On the EURUSD daily chart, the <strong>RSI<\/strong> and <strong>Stochastic<\/strong> oscillators have entered overbought territory and are nearing sell signals. A pullback toward <strong>1.165<\/strong> would offer bulls a breather without violating the broader uptrend line.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Consider the following trading strategy:<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><strong>Sell EURUSD at the current price. Take profit \u2013 1.165. Stop loss \u2013 1.195.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market analysis by financial analysts and experienced traders. Forecast for EURUSD.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5310,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5311","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-forecasts"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"2.12.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["ru","en"],"languages":{"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>EURUSD rally faces potential correction toward 1.165 - Ciraxes<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EURUSD rally faces potential correction toward 1.165 - 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