After five bruising weeks that carved nearly 9% off the index from its January peak, the S&P 500 (SPX) is trying to claw its way back on Monday, March 30, attempting to leave last Friday’s turbulent sell-off in the rearview mirror. Two engines of the downturn—an oil supply shock and a sharp recalibration of monetary expectations—continue to weigh on investor sentiment, with a once-anticipated Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut this year being completely off the table, piling fresh pressure onto shaky ground.
But beneath the gloom, the corporate backbone of the market is showing surprising mettle. First-quarter earnings growth projections for SPX are holding firm at 14%, barely budging since January—a clear signal that analysts are standing pat on fundamentals despite the macro storm clouds. Even with crude hovering near $110 per barrel, JPMorgan estimates the hit to earnings per share (EPS) forecasts would be a modest 2%–5%, hardly enough to spark a substantial rethink.
The dip has also brought valuations back into sharper focus. The S&P 500’s forward P/E has cooled to 19.5x—still above the long-term historical average of around 16x, but enough to stir interest from strategists at Barclays, CIBC, and Truist, who are now advocating for a gradual rebuilding of positions.
From a technical perspective, the broader downtrend remains firmly intact. However, today’s price dynamic is offering a flicker of reprieve as the market rebounds from last session’s aggressive sell-off. The Chaikin Oscillator, which had been languishing in bearish territory, has flattened and is beginning to turn higher in response to the renewed buying interest—a subtle hint that selling momentum may be running out of steam. High trading volumes on both sides of the tape reflect a fierce tug-of-war at current levels. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plunged to 25, flashing oversold conditions—a sign that bearish momentum is exhausted and today’s recovery may carry the fingerprints of a technical bounce.
For those looking to act, pay attention to the trading plan down below:
Buy the S&P 500 Index at the current price ($6,370). Place Take profit at $6,540. Set Stop loss at $6,250.
This forecast holds true from March 30 till April 6, 2026.
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