As of June 29, 2026, gold settled near the key support level of $4,000 per troy ounce following a prolonged decline. Buyers are desperately trying to keep prices above this threshold, but sellers remain firmly in control. Thus, the current upside appears to be a technical correction within a broader bearish trend rather than a full-fledged reversal.
Today’s candle confirms this view. Its lower shadow points to lingering demand near $4,000. However, this momentum is clearly insufficient to spark a meaningful rally. The precious metal is now hovering around $4,060, signaling that buyers have yet to seize the initiative. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA20) continues to decline but remains above the current price, creating strong dynamic resistance and solidifying bearish dominance.
Other indicators also point to uncertainty. The Average True Range (14) reading is still elevated, reflecting heightened volatility. At the same time, the index is gradually declining, suggesting that the gold market is stabilizing ahead of key macroeconomic data. The Stochastic Oscillator has just exited oversold territory, forming a bullish crossover and entering a neutral zone. This explains the recent rebound but offers no clarity on its durability. The downside risk will remain acute until the Stochastic lines reach the 50 threshold.
On the fundamental front, the recent upward move was driven by renewed geopolitical jitters over the weekend. Despite a US-Iran temporary truce and agreement to continue negotiations, current developments keep fueling inflation expectations and reducing appeal for gold—which generates no income—compared to rising Treasury yields.
This week’s key event, with the potential to shift market sentiment, is US Nonfarm Payrolls. The upcoming report could either confirm the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish policy stance or offer the precious metal a brief respite.
Pay attention to the following trading strategy:
Given the firm bearish grip and no signs of a trend reversal on the horizon, consider selling gold during a rebound to the $4,100–$4,120 range. Place Take profit at $3,940 and Stop loss at $4,200.
This forecast remains relevant between June 29 and July 6, 2026.
