At the time of writing, natural gas (NG) is holding steady at around $3.26, with the sudden geopolitical turnaround still pulling the strings in recent sessions. The United States and Iran hashed out a temporary deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the market wasted no time in reading this as a green light for a rapid supply rebound.
On the ground, the changes are quite visible. Washington lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports, and Tehran pledged to allow merchant ships to pass freely. On Monday, the LNG tanker Disha slipped out of the Persian Gulf, and new satellite images show four Qatari vessels heading toward Ras Laffan—with more lined up and waiting for their slot to cross.
To put this in perspective, before the conflict, the country was responsible for a fifth of global fuel shipments. Now, it is planning to bring 50% of its capacity back online within a month, and roughly 80% within two months. What does it mean for investors? This kind of lightning-fast return could deflate their sense of urgency, unwinding the supply tightness that had been keeping Asian spot prices elevated and adding substantial premiums to European and US contracts.
But don’t write off bulls just yet. Domestic American factors are pushing back. Weather forecasts predict extreme heat sticking around through the end of June, which is bound to keep air conditioners roaring and gas demand on the rise. To make matters more interesting, stronger flows to LNG export terminals signal that foreign buyers are hungry—a development that could eat into national stockpiles.
On the technical front, NG is slightly down, yet it is still riding an uptrend. However, the price is now knocking on the door of resistance at $3.250–$3.281. The Stochastic Indicator is screaming overbought at 94 and 75—a classic sign that the rally might be losing steam, and a pause or pullback could be just around the corner. The Chaikin Oscillator, meanwhile, is in positive ground, revealing that bulls are holding the reins. But here is the catch: with overbought readings and a hard ceiling just overhead, the momentum could hit a speed bump, at least for now.
For those ready to take action, pay attention to the trading plan down below:
Sell natural gas at the current price. Place Take profit at $3.10. Set Stop loss at $3.35.
This forecast holds true from June 17 till June 24, 2026.
