Today, March 31, 2026, Germany is set to release key labor market data—the unemployment rate and jobless claims. These reports will shape the outlook for the euro, which remains tethered to the health of Europe’s largest economy amid current stagnation. Let’s analyze all possible scenarios for the EURUSD pair to see how it reacts.
1. “German miracle”, or better-than-expected readings.
Outcome. Unemployment holds at 5.9% or dips below this level, driven by industrial optimism.
Market reaction. Traders view the report as a sign that the German economy has finally hit its rock bottom, reducing the possibility of imminent rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB).
EURUSD prospects. An impulsive rise is likely.
The probability of this scenario is low, as the country’s weak performance in auto production and energy-intensive industries keeps weighing on the pair.
2. Ongoing stagflation, or widely expected readings.
Outcome. The number of jobless people increases by 10,000–15,000, with the unemployment rate at 6%.
Market reaction. Traders are likely to stay neutral, shifting their focus to inflation figures and US statistics (Nonfarm Payrolls or NFP).
EURUSD prospects. Quotes will remain within the current range.
The probability of the second scenario is rather high.
3. Recession shock, or worse-than-expected readings.
Outcome. The number of jobless people surges by over 25,000–30,000, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.1%.
Market reaction. Expectations of imminent cuts from the ECB (as early as the next meeting) intensify, driven by the region’s deteriorating economic state. This puts extra pressure on the single currency.
EURUSD prospects. Prices appear poised to breach the psychological support level at 1.1440.
The probability of the last scenario is moderate, especially in light of several plant closures in early 2026.
All in all, the broader trend remains bearish due to the growing disparity in strength between the American and European economies. Any positive news regarding Germany will be used by major players to sell the euro at higher levels ahead of tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and Friday’s US NFP report.
The overall recommendation is to sell EURUSD. Profits should be taken at 1.1440. Stop Loss could be set at 1.1490.
Always size the position so that your potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is no more than 1% of your account balance. If you can’t open a position that meets such a risk criterion, it’s safer to skip this trade and wait for a better, lower-risk opportunity.
